How It Works

Hit rate

A hit rate is the percentage of a player's recent games in which their stat finished over a given line. Ties (a "push", for example exactly 2 shots against a 2.0 line) count as misses, which is the conservative reading. Sportsbook lines are almost always half numbers, so pushes are rare.

The dashboard shows the last 10 regular-season games. Player pages also show the last 5 and last 15. Goalie hit rates only count games the goalie actually appeared in. NFL hit rates skip bye weeks.

Which line is used

Sportsbooks post a main line plus alternates. When a player has several, we pick the main line from the biggest U.S. books first (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers), and otherwise the most common line across books. Use the Filter by Line buttons to see any alternate.

Sorting

Players with a line today are listed first, ranked by last-10 hit rate. To keep tiny samples honest, the ranking pads everyone out to a full 10 games (5 for NFL) with coin-flip games before comparing: a 1-for-1 ranks as 55%, a 6-for-10 as 60%, a 4-for-5 as 65% and a 10-for-10 as 100%. The percentage you see is always the real one; only the order is adjusted. Ties break on games played, then season totals.

Opponent context

For shots and saves we show the opponent's shot volume: how many shots they allow per game (for shooters) or generate per game (for goalies), with a rank from 1 to 32. Green badges are favorable matchups, red are tough ones.

Refresh schedule

Data updates every morning around 11 AM Eastern. On game days there is a second refresh about an hour before the first game. The timestamp in the status bar tells you exactly when the data was last loaded.

Limits

Hit rates ignore injuries, line changes, backup goalies and everything else that matters. They are a starting point, not a system. Please read the Terms of Use.